What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? And, why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they are impossible to predict; yet we always try to rationalize them after they happen. A rallying cry to ignore the "experts", "The Black Swan" shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.
